Ethereum Byzantium Fork was triggered around 1 am Eastern Standard time on Monday October the 16th. It has been now more than 24 hours after the successful upgrade. So far, Ethereum price is holding around the 325 USD area after touching 350 USD around the fork time. Ethereum price might be coiling up for a Bullish move. We cover our rationale in this article

In our most recent article Ethereum price 2 hours before Byzantium, we said that Ether is likely to respond positively to the upgrade and provided 2 scenarios:

  • A “sell the news” reaction that would last for a short period before a bullish Ethereum price move
  • A sharp move upwards as Ethereum’s intrinsic value is set to benefit tremendously from the Byzantium fork and the added features and enhacements to Ethereum’s code.

Shortly after the upgrade, Vitalik Buterin tweeted some positive news about the upgrade. Amongst the good news, we noted the reduction of the block time to less than 20s, an important factor that investors want to keep an eye on.

Vitalik tweets after Byzantium

Fork done, Upgrade successful, now what’s going on with Ethereum price?

Everything was pointing to a sharp upwards move for Ethereum before and during the fork. That move hasn’t happen yet but a sell off didn’t either. The overall sentiment seems bullish but cautious, and for good reasons. Because as we mentioned before, Sympathy moves are very strong in the Cryptocurrency market, so to understand Ethereum’s current and future moves, we need to look at the crypto market in general.

These are some factors that we believe delayed the massive Bullish move we foresee coming for Ethereum:

  1. Parity CTO and founder Gavin Wood’s comments about last minute decisions that needed to be taken and advising Ethereum users to be cautious “in the days and weeks ahead”.
  2. According to Coindesk, 2 groups are announcing their intention to protest the new Ethereum reduced mining reward and Hard fork. The main protest forks group is Ethereum Vega and has less that 200 followers on twitter. The second one is Etherite with two posts on its official Reddit page.
  3. Bitcoin price is facing a massive resistance at the 6000 USD level. This was happening around the same time as the Ethereum fork triggering cautiousness among traders and investors. IF Bitcoin breaks 6000 USD, it might contribute to fueling the next Ethereum Bullish run. That is not to say it needs to happen as a condition for Ethereum price to increase BUT it will be a positive catalyst.
  4. The pressure on Cryptocurrencies and ICOs in particular and around the world, be it from regulators, exchanges or governments. Russia will be issuing its own CryptoRuble and official comments against Bitcoin
  • Rumors that Japan might be regulating ICOs
  • The US Sec rejecting Bitcoin’s ETF applications or requesting their withdrawal till they can regulate the underlying assets (the Cryptocurrency).
  • The news that just broke out that Bitfinex will not be servicing US clients and they will have to sell or transfer their altcoins to other exchanges by November the 9th.
  • Bitrex clients are reporting “Mysterious account closures” with no reason given by the exchange, most accounts closed seem to be in Syria, India, Iran, Russia, Pakistan and Turkey.

So As Ethereum went through a successful upgrade that will definitely enhance its performance and intrinsic value, some might be blinded by all the noise in the Crypto market in general and around Ethereum. We are still maintaining our positive outlook for Ethereum price and believe we will be seeing a Bullish move for Ether. The fact that Ether is trading in such a tight range following the fork means that there is an important confidence in the value of Ether and that it is probably coiling up for a big move. Very likely upwards and the Catalyst could be released in the soon to be held Ethereum developers conference Devcon 3.

You can read more about the Ethereum upgrade in the articles below:

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